α» TerraFlops edit** « wiki αt10xxxxx

Inspired by http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2008/01/unreal-accelera.html : What could be a good measure for technological acceleration? First Suggestion: The cumulated information processing power of
  • organisms, especially
  • HuMan MiNd's and
  • silicon based systems
  • First numbers:

    1) Silicon FLOPS:

    ~61m PCs in [Q2 2007|http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/92967], so ~240m PCs in 2007, assuming 10 GFLOPS [each|http://movementarian.com/2006/08/18/flops-mips-watts-and-the-human-brain/]. So per year ~2.500.000.000.000.000.000 FLOPS (2.5e exaFlops) are produced, doubling every 24 months. So in the 2050 there would be produced: |2010| 5.000.000.000.000.000.000 |2020| 160.000.000.000.000.000.000 |2030| 5.120.000.000.000.000.000.000 |2040| 163.840.000.000.000.000.000.000 |2050|5.242.880.000.000.000.000.000.000 So we assume 5 yottaFlops producred in the year 2050 - and chips of the last five years still in use: so in average: 1+2+3+4+5=15 yottaFlops. Extrapolation of the TOP500: (assuming 90% increase/year) ||Date||RPeak||FLOPS |2007|596 Tera |-.---.596.400.000.000.000 |2008|1,132 Peta|-.--1.133.160.000.000.000 |2010|4,088 Peta|-.--4.090.707.600.000.000 |2020|2,506 Exa| 2.508.039.932.000.000.000

    2) Human FLOPS

    ||Year||People||Flops |2008|6.6b|? http://movementarian.com/2006/08/18/flops-mips-watts-and-the-human-brain/:
  • HansMoravec: 100.000.000.000.000 flops
  • NickBostrom: 100.000.000.000.000.000 flops
  • So let's assume an average of 10 PFLOPS per MiNd: The UnitedNations estimates the world population to be ~9b in 2050. 10.000.000.000.000.000 HuMan flops x 9.000.000.000 MiNd's = 90.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 FLOPS = 90 yottaFlops